My director said something offhand on a call recently that stuck with me: promotions codify what's already been happening. By the time someone gets promoted, they've already been doing the work of that next level, and the title is just catching up.
A few weeks ago I wrote about what happens when companies stop hiring junior engineers and replace them with AI. The argument was straightforward: if you don't hire juniors today, you don't have seniors in five years.
One of my kids has recently graduated with a CS degree. He's been applying for entry-level software engineering positions for months now, and the responses - when there are responses - have not been encouraging.